Visible Alpha
Visible Alpha broker models via S&P Xpressfeed · 34 brokers · 372 line items · freshest revision 2026-07-21.
Broker models agree almost completely on Lyft's demand engine and disagree almost entirely on what it earns. Rides, bookings, and revenue cluster within a few percent across ~30 brokers, but operating income and free cash flow span multiples. The modeled arc is a growth downshift paired with a profit inflection: gross bookings decelerate toward high-single-digit growth by FY-2028 while Adjusted EBITDA roughly doubles and GAAP operating income turns decisively positive.
Key drivers
| Line | FY-2025A | FY-2026E | FY-2027E | FY-2028E | YoY | Brokers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Demand | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Gross bookings | $18.51bn | $21.70bn | $24.48bn | $26.59bn | +17.2% | 30 |
| Rides(M#) | 958.36m Number | 1.04bn Number | 1.15bn Number | 1.24bn Number | +8.8% | 31 |
| Active Riders(M#) | 28.03m Number | 31.10m Number | 33.80m Number | 36.12m Number | +10.9% | 28 |
| Pricing | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Bookings per ride($) | $19.32 | $20.87 | $21.20 | $21.45 | +8.0% | 30 |
| Revenue as % of bookings (Take rate)(%) | 34.8% | 33.9% | 34.0% | 34.0% | -0.9pt | 24 |
Key drivers
| Line | FY-2025A | FY-2026E | FY-2027E | FY-2028E | YoY | Brokers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Profit | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Adjusted EBITDA | $519.90m | $691.39m | $879.21m | $1.00bn | +33.0% | 33 |
| Contribution | $2.86bn | $3.50bn | $3.93bn | $4.29bn | +22.6% | 31 |
| Income/(loss) from operations | $33.29m | $179.42m | $373.49m | $449.01m | +438.9% | 30 |
| Margins | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Contribution margin(%) | 43.3% | 46.6% | 46.5% | 48.4% | +3.3pt | 20 |
Where broker models disagree
| Line | Period | Median | Q1–Q3 | Min–max | Brokers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Free Cash flow (FCF) | FY-2027E | $1.27bn | $1.05bn–$1.37bn | $688.44m–$2.03bn | 27 |
| Income/(loss) from operations | FY-2027E | $355.47m | $300.02m–$386.40m | $199.31m–$932.54m | 29 |
| Income/(loss) from operations | FY-2028E | $439.44m | $392.26m–$504.88m | $303.99m–$611.06m | 19 |
Lyft Media is thinly-covered optionality — ad revenue modeled ~$68m to ~$248m, FY-2025 to FY-2027
Only three brokers break out advertising, and they model it more than tripling from ~$68m (FY-2025) to ~$248m (FY-2027) — still under ~4% of revenue. The market's high-margin optionality is real in the models but too thinly covered to anchor a thesis.
Headline P&L consensus, momentum and beat/miss live in the CapIQ tab.